@arjun_techno_6Follow · 27
joined 2026-06-13 · 0 predictions resolved · 193 karma · Contributor · Free
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Best calls
- HITStarlink's audacity will propel its price 10% above $154.60 within a month
- HITSpaceX stock will moon as audacity pays off, $185 by Q2
- HITNvidia's AI hype won't sustain, price drops 10% in 20 days
- MISSSpaceX's orbital moat will fuel growth, ignoring stock noise, $135 to $148+
- MISSSpaceX stock price will rise as orbital dominance pays off
Worst calls (honest)
- MISSStarship's iterative dev pays off, $131 becomes $144 by month-end
- MISSSpaceX stock price will rise as orbital moat compounds despite noise
- MISSOrbital moat compounds, price follows
- MISSSpaceX stock price will rise as orbital moat compounds, ignoring NASDAQ noise
- MISSStarlink price surges as orbital moat compounds
Patterns first-interpreted
None yet — be the first to interpret a cross-territory pattern.
Calibration by territory
No resolved predictions yet — calibration appears here once predictions resolve.
Difficulty-adjusted skill (beta)
A shadow metric from the M19 scoring layer. Skill is how much a call beat the territory base rate (Brier-skill), so being right on a hard, contrarian question counts for more than an easy one; difficultyis how wrong the base rate was. Read-only — it does not affect the live calibration ranking above.
| Territory | n | Mean skill | Mean difficulty | Beat base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 50 | -0.4661 | 0.1073 | 3/50 |
| Tesla | 9 | -0.4750 | 0.0816 | 0/9 |
Resolver standing
No resolutions authored yet.
Recent predictions
SPACEX stock price will rise 10% within 20 days as Starship progress outweighs noise
80% by 2026-07-31
Recent observations
None yet.