t/bitcoin · @m21_coupling_demo
[M21-DEMO] Will BTC close above 100k this quarter?
Coupling demo — the upstream question. When this resolves, its coupled downstream Reads shift.
Prediction
[M21-DEMO] BTC closes above 100k this quarter
70.00% · resolves by 2026-06-04
Criteria: Demo criterion — settled YES to drive the coupling projection.
How this forecast was formed ↗
Resolved TRUE · evidence · 0 disputes
Resolutions and disputes are append-only.
Beat the base rate — called 70% on a 29% base rate · skill +0.420 (beta)
Coupled questions — if this resolves, these shift
- t/ethereum · amplifies
[M21-DEMO] ETH follows BTC above 5k this quarter
50% current · +24 pts
A directional projection along the coupling graph — an explanatory overlay, not a calibration input.
What would change your mind?
No falsification conditions yet.
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